Update on the Palm Beach Real Estate Market and Forecast

What does the crystal ball tell us about the Palm Beach housing market in 2017 and 2018?  Some new housing and economic stats along with activity reports of Palm Beach Realtors are providing some excellent clues.

The rising valuation of the US dollar might be the current and ongoing influence for the rest of 2017 and 2018. The higher valued US dollar has dried up buyer interest from many countries including Canada, yet there are pockets of buyers from specific areas. With Palm Beach County home prices peaking, some sellers are beginning to consider selling. For buyers, that spells opportunity.

Let’s take a look at the housing data and the micro and macro factors including lifestyle, economic, and financial that could weigh in your decision to buy a home here in Palm Beach County or sell your current home.
 
The Palm Beach Housing market is dynamic, characterized by very high priced estate homes near the coast and more affordable properties to the west (for the most part). The range of home prices you’ll see below shows that each community has its own price level. Buyers are international and buying and selling trends follow political events. 

Providing a real estate forecast for Boca Raton, Wellington, and Palm Beach isn’t easy in 2017. There is some local and international turbulence yet after it settles, Florida’s growth will continue. Palm Beach is still one of the nicest places to live and invest and I’m the Palm Beach realtor who will introduce you to all that these beautiful communities have to offer.

What are the Top 13 Factors affecting the Housing Market in the Palm Beach area in 2017 and 2018? 

Here's some key factors that could push prices and availability one way or the other:

  1. Demographics: older homeowners maybe selling and new US millennials could soon be buying here
  2. Rising employment and new business development in Palm Beach County and whether Trumps economic plan will begin to work
  3. Moderately rising mortgage rates
  4. High end and lower end rentals may be down
  5. Home and condo availability - new construction
  6. Migration - number of people migrating to Florida overall
  7. Banks withdrawing financial support for new condo projects
  8. In-migration of wealthy people from outside the US
  9. Value of USD rising against all other currencies
  10. Advantage of no state tax or inheritance tax in Florida
  11. High prices in the Palm Beach area spreading interest to other communities in the county
  12. A limited amount of land for development
  13. Fast improving US economy generates new potential buyers in many other US states

Some housing data research providers have offered up their interpretation of the South Florida housing situation and outlook. So I thought you might like to look at their stats to as a helper to determine whether buying a condo or home down here in Palm Beach is a smart and timely move.

As this graphic depicts, home sales fell in 2016. Does that mean it’s a market in contraction? It turns it out sales were down due a lack of available single detached homes. And when supply falls, prices will rise. This basic equation won’t change for a while so we can expect rising prices this year in Palm Beach. Naples had a similar situation with a drop of 8.2% in sales.
 
 

 

"This past year was marked by tight housing inventory throughout Florida, particularly in the range of $200,000 and under," said 2017 Florida Realtors President Maria Wells.
 

The condo/townhouse market in South Florida had similar data with sales down 7.7% and prices up about 7%. Sales dropped overall in Florida, yet Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville markets all saw increases in sales. More inventory is the likely reason.
 
In a report published in bizjournals.com, Florida Realtors Chief Economist Brad O’Connor. "Sales of non-distressed single-family homes, on the other hand, were up nearly 14 percent in 2016, and non-distressed condo and townhouse sales were up more than 5 percent. This increase in 'traditional' sales activity is a clear sign of good things to come for Florida's housing markets in 2017."
 
The state of normal housing sales in Florida, particularly south Florida is good. Demand is strong and sales are continuing where available.  It points to a competitive market and means you’ll need a realtor to get in on the action, if you intend to move here and buy (or even to rent). 
 
The latest realty news reports on a number of luxury home properties in Palm Beach selling at very high prices. One, an 18,300-square-foot oceanfront mansion in Palm Beach just sold for $40 Million.  The wealthy are definitely interested in the Palm Beach County area and they will enjoy more variety than the average working buyer will in lower price ranges.
 
Have a look at some Palm Beach County homes or Boca Raton condos for sale right now so you can get a feel for what’s available. Please remember that many upscale homes are not listed on the MLS for obvious reasons. People like their anonymity and privacy here. 
 
Here’s a beautiful home in Delray Beach for sale you might like to check out.

Low Inventory doesn’t last forever, and as home prices continue rising many homeowners here in Palm Beach County will want to cash out and sell their home. It’s a waiting game, and if you’re working with me, I can keep you aware of a potential sale coming up. Being connected is so important.
 

As I mentioned above, the distressed/foreclosures property list has all been dried up.  Foreclosures and short sales in Palm beach comprised just 10% of all closing last summer. So we’re back to a somewhat normal local market condition for 2017. And the shortage of homes is sure to extend into 2018.
 
Foreign Buyers have Been a Big Segment of the Palm Beach Market

One macroeconomic factor that might be temporarily affecting the housing market here is diminishing purchasers from outside the US. The US dollar has been so strong and other currencies so weak, that real estate here is beyond the resources of foreign buyers, who previously may have paid cash.

At this point, the Trump election promises and anti-Trump backlash is a very real distraction.  Yet if the US economy continues to roll, with upward growth in wages, it stands to reason that more buyers will come from across the US. It will be Americans buying homes here. 

If you’re from Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, or Minnesota, you may find the weather, lifestyle, beautiful communities and improving employment/business market much to your liking.

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health - Share this post with your friends and coworkers who may be looking for a healthy life change. Give them the gift of life in South Florida!

Let’s take a quick look at the Association of Florida Realtor’s report on housing sales in 2016.  These 6 chart graphics from PBCA Yearly Market Detail - 2016 for Palm Beach County, tells a compelling picture of a market of rising prices, growing availability, and more sales in the $250k to $600k price range.

Pending inventory is low however, so you may have to hunt hard to find a buy a home for yourself in one of the many desirable communities in Palm Beach, Boca Raton, and Wellington. Location is important, and I hope as you’re preferred Boca Raton Palm Beach Realtor, I’ll be able to assist you in purchasing your home.


You may want to get on this spring so you can lock into a lower mortgage rate over a longer term, thus protecting you from inflationary cost issues.

Economic Factors for Palm Beach and South Florida

Recent economic reports have been very favorable, with experts suggesting Florida's economy is one of the nation's best. 

According to Snaith's forecast, Florida is expected to break the $1 trillion mark in 2018 and climb to $1.074 trillion in 2019. That would make Florida's economy the 16th largest in the world, according to rankings by the World Bank - From a news story in the Sun Sentinel.

Palm Beach isn’t just for wealthy people. It’s for kids and families who want to enjoy life to the fullest. See this list of top 20 attractions in Palm Beach County. I hope you and your spouse are taking this possibility seriously and that you’ll work with me to find the best home for you here in Palm Beach, Wellington or Boca Raton.

Here are a few gorgeous communities you might investigate. As you can see, Palm Beach County home prices vary considerably. And while price doesn’t tell you everything about whether a particular city or community will work for you, it does give you an idea of how badly other people want to live there.
 
Home Prices in Palm Beach County

Community Median Household Income Average Home Price Population
Cloud Lake $55,046 $75,500 26000
Glen Ridge $55,046 $75,500 26907
Golf $50,783 $130,000 42898
Jupiter Inlet Colony $71,644 $208,900 14678
Manalapan $47,873 $96,500 32000
Briny Breezes $40,753 $74,350 32783
Gulf Stream $64,531 $340,000 12284
Palm Beach Shores $67,730 $340,000 37,940
South Palm Beach $99,132 $475,000 1,021
Ocean Ridge $40,500 $74,350 32,783
Haverhill $36,055 $56,367 75,410
Mangonia Park $40,753 $71,750 30,217
Atlantis $28,799 $130,000 32,000
Hypoluxo $47,873 $96,500 32,000
Juno Beach $62,143 $175,000 17,130
Loxahatchee Groves $83,200 $145,000 27,439
Lake Clarke Shores $55,046 $75,500 26,907
Highland Beach $63,627 $259,300 16,731
South Bay $29,863 $48,494 5,012
Tequesta $71,644 $208,900 14,678
Pahokee $28,001 $50,450 29,041
Lake Park $43,471 $80,600 12,416
Palm Beach $99,132 $475,000 10,017
Lantana $47,873 $96,500 32,018
North Palm Beach $62,143 $175,000 17,130
Belle Glade $28,799 $55,000 21,473
Palm Springs $39,592 41475 18,928
Riviera Beach $38,540 $79,474 58,140
Royal Palm Beach $64,982 $117,300 66,657
Lake Worth $57,199 $126,750 219,298
Greenacres $48,822 $92,374 114,765
Palm Beach Gardens $71,997 $221,750 69,925
Jupiter $77,308 $231,575 91,000
Wellington $54,985 $177,500 82,295
Delray Beach $48,802 $144,285 109,306
Boynton Beach $68,695 $169,041 158,703
Boca Raton $68,962 $207,891 214,419
West Palm Beach $49,535 $96,721 316,628

Learn more about the market here in Palm Beach County by getting in touch with me.  Register now so you can receive alerts and news about homes for sale in the our region. Get the jump on a hungry market for buyers in South Florida.

I'm Michael Goldberg of United Realty Group in Florida, and I'm looking forward to helping you with your home purchase and relocation to Florida.